Short answer: Not yet. New research shows paid ChatGPT ads in the US earn $0.89 per visit, 64% less than the $2.45 from Google search ads, while organic ChatGPT referrals earn $3.27 per visit, the highest of five channels. Taiwanese SMBs should make their websites easy for AI to recommend and test ads only once they launch locally and the data matures.
On November 2, Maximilian Kaiser (WU Vienna) and Christian Schulze (Frankfurt School) published the working paper "Can Advertising Fund Free AI?" Using GA4 data from 1,898 e-commerce sites, nearly 10 billion visits and 60 weeks, they compared countries where ChatGPT ads launched with the EU, where they hadn't. The headline: a paid ChatGPT click brings barely more than a third of the revenue per visit of a Google search ad. It's the first independent analysis built on large-scale real sales data since ChatGPT ads began nine months ago.
Why now? OpenAI piloted ChatGPT ads in the US on February 9 and in May launched a self-serve Ads Manager with cost-per-click bidding, recommending starting bids of $3–5 per click, while minimum spend fell from $250,000 in the pilot to none. The same month it expanded to the UK, Brazil, Japan, South Korea and Mexico. Digiday reported average monthly ChatGPT ad spend of about $109M and an OpenAI forecast of $2.5B in ad revenue by the end of 2026. Advertisers rushed in, but no independent proof of returns existed until now.
Other AI ad products are at a similar stage: Google places ads in AI Mode and AI Overviews on its existing search ad system; Perplexity has tested sponsored follow-up questions since 2024; Microsoft shows ads inside Copilot answers. All are in "scale first, prove results later" mode. The category is expanding fast, but evidence of effectiveness lags behind ad sales growth.
Should Taiwanese SMBs follow? Publicly reported launch markets don't include Taiwan, so buying isn't the question yet. The part that matters is the other finding: organic ChatGPT visitors are the most valuable. Below are the numbers, the caveats and a no-subscription way to track them.
The details: paid clicks are cheap in value, organic recommendations are gold
Bottom line: on the same platform, paid and organic traffic differ in value by almost 4x. The US breakdown:
| Metric (US) | Paid ChatGPT ads | Google search ads | Organic ChatGPT |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue per visit | $0.89 | $2.45 | $3.27 (highest of 5 channels) |
| Conversion rate | 0.37% | 1.17% | about 2% (full sample) |
| Share of site visits | 0.030% in final 4 weeks | — | 0.40% in final 4 weeks |
- Of 87 US advertisers running both, 84 earned less per ChatGPT visit, 85 converted worse and 73 recorded no ChatGPT sale; one advertiser accounted for 66% of paid ChatGPT purchases.
- Within the same sites, paid ChatGPT orders were $74 smaller on average.
- At search-ad returns, a ChatGPT click is worth about $0.26; the largest known account paid $1.72, 6.6 times that.
- Organic referrals fell 5.9% in the 13 weeks after ads launched, but the drop wasn't statistically significant and conversion barely moved.
Data came free from Grips Intelligence, where Kaiser is a scientific adviser; the paper is under review. PPC Land summarized the full figures.
What three kinds of readers should do now
Bottom line: measure AI-referred customers before spending money on AI ads.
- Brand owners and SMBs: ask whoever runs your site to check GA4 for visits and sales from chatgpt.com, perplexity.ai and gemini.google.com over 90 days. Sales there mean AI already recommends you.
- Marketers and SEOs: make AI sources their own channel group, compare conversion with Google organic monthly, and add spec tables, prices and FAQs to product pages.
- Developers and agencies: bundle AI source tracking, product structured data and FAQ pages into a small package; it's better evidenced than "AI ad management."
AI traffic tracking tools compared
Bottom line: under about NT$50K a month in marketing spend, free GA4 setup is enough; paid tools matter only for tracking brand mentions inside AI answers.
| Tool | What it does | Price range | Best for |
|---|---|---|---|
| GA4 custom channel group | Separates AI sources, shows visits and sales | Free | Any site with GA4 |
| Otterly.AI | Tracks brand mentions in ChatGPT and others | From tens of dollars/month | Small teams tracking key questions |
| Peec AI | AI answer visibility and competitor comparison | From about €100/month | Brands with dedicated SEO staff |
| Profound | Enterprise AI visibility and citation analysis | From hundreds of dollars/month | Multi-brand, multi-market companies |
What they won't tell you
Bottom line: the study is bad news for ChatGPT ads today, not a permanent verdict.
- Last-click only. Many users ask ChatGPT, then search the brand on Google the next day and buy; credit goes to Google, so paid ChatGPT value may be understated.
- The ad product is new. Bidding tools, placements and the conversions API launched during the study window; early advertisers' weak setups explain part of the gap.
- Selection effect in organic value. Sites ChatGPT recommends are already strong brands with complete content; they aren't valuable because they're recommended, they're recommended because they're valuable.
A no-subscription alternative for SMBs
Bottom line: one afternoon is enough to see your AI traffic clearly.
- In GA4 admin, create a custom channel group with an "AI assistants" channel matching chatgpt.com, perplexity.ai, gemini.google.com and copilot.microsoft.com.
- Place it above "Referral," or AI visits get lumped into general referrals.
- Each month, ask ChatGPT and Perplexity 10 common customer questions and log whether your brand appears.
- Add direct-answer paragraphs, spec tables and FAQ structured data to key pages, then watch next month's AI sources.
FAQ
Can Taiwanese businesses buy ChatGPT ads?
Publicly reported launch markets don't include Taiwan yet. Until then, track organic AI referrals and sales in GA4.
Why do organic ChatGPT visitors buy more?
They arrive after asking and comparing options. In the study they earned $3.27 per visit, the highest of any channel.
How do I know whether ChatGPT recommends my site?
Check GA4 for chatgpt.com referrals, and ask 10 common customer questions monthly to see if your brand appears.
Should I buy an AI visibility tool first?
Not on a small budget. A GA4 custom channel group plus a spreadsheet answers most of your questions.
My take
Most readers will conclude "ChatGPT ads don't work." I think the opposite: the problem isn't effectiveness, it's price. Parity is about $0.26 per click while OpenAI recommends opening bids of $3–5, a gap of more than 10x. That won't last; as inventory grows and auctions mature, prices will correct. When ads reach Taiwan, they'll likely arrive already repriced, so preparing to be recommended beats studying how to bid now.
The bigger number is $3.27: organic recommendations convert best and can't be bought, only earned through structured, quotable website content. For ScriptWalker (a Taiwanese Laravel/Flutter custom development studio), the service is clear: package AI source tracking, product structured data and FAQ page upgrades at a fixed price, with website and feature work from NT$80,000, so clients see how much business AI already brings before buying AI ads. Selling measurement holds up better than selling ad management.
Sources
- Primary: Kaiser & Schulze working paper (Oct 2026)
- Primary: OpenAI: New ways to buy ChatGPT ads
- Primary: Google Analytics Help: custom channel groups
- Third party: PPC Land
- Third party: Digiday
- Third party: TechXplore